The 2016 Tennis season starts January 4th and the upcoming year will answer some intriguing questions about the ATP Tour. The Tennis Review looks at eleven of those questions about the likes of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal and tries to predict the answers.
Will Roger Federer get Slam No.18?
Federer and the quest for slam 18 was the blockbuster narrative of 2015, and if the Swiss continues to perform at such a high standard in 2016, it will be this season’s big story, too.
In the last couple of years, Federer’s resurgence from a dismal 2013 has been rewarded with the kind of superhero status rarely seen in men’s tennis. The Swiss is treated like the legend he is at every tournament he competes in, and Grand Slam spectators make no secret of their desire to see him break his own slam record of 17 and win slam no.18.
Will he do it? It is not likely to happen in Australia (he has not reached the final since winning the title in 2010), or at Roland Garros (he has not scheduled a single clay court warm up), but if Federer is going to win that elusive 18th slam in 2016 it will be at Wimbledon.
Federer has entered both Stuttgart and Halle as warm up events, and you have to think he will be preparing on Grass while everyone else is working out their clay court games.
Plenty of practice and match play on his favorite surface leading into his favorite slam would make Federer even more of a threat going into Wimbledon 2016 than he was last season.
If Federer does go into SW19 on fire this year, that story is going to be the big one in 2016. If he doesn’t, then the Federer 18th slam story will carry over to New York where his chances would be slightly less than at Wimbledon- he has a packed schedule leading in with the Olympics, Canada, and Cincinnati- but where the story will be just as fun, if not more so, to follow.
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Will Novak Djokovic win RG?
If Novak Djokovic wins Roland Garros in 2016 he will become only the fifth man to win the Career Grand Slam in the Open era.
That is some pressure, and every time Djokovic has gotten close, the pressure has gotten to him. In 2012, he double faulted championship point down, in 2013 he led Nadal by a break in the fifth set in the semis when he touched the net before the ball bounced and lost his focus, in 2014, he got a cold and flunked the final, and in 2015 he was overwhelmed by a brilliantly aggressive Stan Wawrinka.
A player as good as Djokovic is on clay (he has 7 ATP 1000 titles and is 48-11 at the French Open), at a time when the surface’s best player is struggling with confidence, is unlikely to end his career without a Roland Garros title. The question is will it come in 2016?
And if it does not, what circumstances will he fail in? They have always been dramatic, and it will take a great player to lure him into them. Whatever happens, win or lose, the French Open crowd, who are warmer to Djokovic in defeat than some slam crowds are in victory, will give him the reception his very proximity to Grand Slam history deserves.
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Can Andy Murray mount a convincing challenge as the world No.2?
The Scot trailed Djokovic 1-6 in 2015, and though their Australian Open final, Miami final and Roland Garros semi all went the distance, Djokovic took the deciding sets with ease.
The ATP Tour will have a problem in 2016 if its No.2 cannot defeat the No.1 more often, or at least take him to the wire in the decider.
Murray’s chances of pushing Djokovic harder will increase if he can keep his first serve percentage high, be aggressive on his forehand, take risks on the second serve, and step inside the court earlier than later in the rallies.
More than anything, though, Murray has to be mentally strong. While he can take Djokovic to a decider, he tends to go inside himself gamewise and go a little out of his mind once Djokovic’s intensity rises.
The Scot has to not only outdo Djokovic on the backhand and the return, but also when it comes to the mental side of things. He did it in 2015 in Montreal, and we know he can do it again. It is a tall order, but that is what is expected of the world no.2, and if Murray hopes to fight Djokovic for the No.1 ranking he is going to have to, if Djokovic keeps up his remarkable 2015 finals record, outdo the Serb more than just once in 2016.
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Is Nadal back?
Nadal’s end to 2015 was as surprising as his early season decline. The post US Open stretch is typically his weakest of the season, but in 2015 it was his strongest period of play.
That run of Beijing Final, Shanghai semis, Paris quarters and an unbeaten run to the ATP WTF semis where he had an impressive start against Djokovic saw Nadal get back to world No.5 and very nearly brought the return to the Big Four at the top of the year end rankings for the first time since 2012.
What had been missing in the first three quarters of 2015 was very much back in the final quarter- Nadal’s fight. This time he did not lose because he lacked confidence to engage in battle- he lost because he had brought out the best in his opponent and been beaten by the better player.
Nadal can only gain ranking points at the start of 2016, and he has usually done well in the first Hard court quarter of the season. If he can get a good patch of play going, he will go into the Clay season feeling good and with the hunger that will have come with watching his rivals hold aloft his beloved Clay court titles.
That hunger will be dangerous for Nadal’s competitors, especially Djokovic. We should remember back in 2013 when Djokovic had finished 2011 and 2012 as the world No.1 only to find Nadal’s forehand down the line and mental toughness too much for him- will it be the same reversal of fortunes for these two in 2015?
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Can Dimitrov climb back into the top ten?
In August 2014, Grigor Dimitrov broke into the ATP Top Ten, after a stretch of play that saw him win three titles (Queens, Bucharest, Stockholm) and make his first Slam semi (Wimbledon).
His fall down the rankings was as dramatic as his climb. The 22 year old crashed out of the US Open fourth round, failed to defend his Stockholm title, and in 2015 he managed just two semi-final and four quarter-final finishes and ended the year ranked no. 28.
The Bulgarian did have a promising end to the season, defeating Cilic in Paris and taking Nadal to three in Basel, and he made a change to his coaching team by hiring Franco Davin, who helped del Potro and Gaudio to slam titles, as his coach.
Dimitrov has the talent, the question is does he have the desire? If he does not, talk of his unfulfilled potential will take up many a column inch. But if he does have the desire, then the tennis world is in for a treat if Dimitrov’s best tennis fills up the highlight reels at the business end of tournaments in 2016.
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Will Nishikori win that all important first slam?
Nishikori turned 26 at the end of 2015, and is at the stage of his career when he should be winning slams if he is going to turn into the multi-slam champion many expect him to be.
The world No.8 has been close- he was the 2014 US Open runner up – but he has not been to the last four of any other slam, and that lack of experience is going to hurt him the longer it goes on.
The Japanese certainly has the game to win a slam- he is an aggressive shotmaker with great athleticism- but his body has failed him time and time again.
If his health, and game, can hold up in 2016, he could easily make another slam final – the big question is whether or not he is ready to win that all important first one and get his Slam tally rolling.
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Can Milos Raonic get his career back on track?
Milos Raonic had worked hard on making his game more than just about his serve and in early 2015 it was really paying off.
As world No.8, he made the finals of Brisbane, the quarters of the Australian Open, the Rotterdam semis and earned his first career win over Rafael Nadal on his way to the Indian Wells semis, and was receiving praise for his much improved back court game and return that had taken him to a career high ranking of 6.
Injuries cut short his progress, though, and after retiring in the Monte Carlo quarter finals versus Berdych, Raonic did not go past the quarters of an event until he won the ATP 250 in St Petersburg in the autumn.
Raonic finished the year ranked 14, but his health was still in question. As the 2016 tennis season approaches, he now has the hard task of getting his health back to its optimum, and of getting himself back up to the top of the tennis rankings.
It is a tough task, but Raonic has proven he can get there once, and in 2016, with any luck, one of the biggest talents of his generation will prove he can do it a second time.
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Can Stan Wawrinka win a slam three years in a row?
In 2014, Wawrinka surprised us all when he shocked Nadal and won the Australian Open. In 2015 , he did it again when he stunned Novak Djokovic in the Roland Garros Championship match and showed us he was not a one slam wonder.
If Wawrinka wins a third slam at one of the 2016 Majors, he will separate himself from the impressive two time winners list that includes Andy Murray, Lleyton Hewitt, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Sergei Bruguera, and Marat Safin, and join three time winners Gustavo Kuerten, Jan Kodes, and Arthur Ashe.
We know Stan Wawrinka can do it, but whether or nor he will is up for debate. The Swiss is streaky enough he could pull off another great run, or he could never reach another final, which makes the question of if he can win a third slam one of the most intriguing of 2016.
Could any of the second tier former slam finalists win a slam?
Tomas Berdych, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and David Ferrer have all been in slam finals, but were very much second best in their finals. All three of their careers are approaching their twilights, and there will not be many more opportunities for them to end their careers as Grand Slam champs.
But it could happen, like it did for Andres Gomez, Gaston Gaudio and Thomas Johansson. They would all need a little luck, some performances of a lifetime, and that extra boost of confidence in the crucial moments.
Such scenes would be spectacular ones in a season many expect to be dominated by Novak Djokovic. The element of surprise in one of the second tier joining the elite would give a buzz to many a spectator who enjoy seeing years of hard work, unrealized dreams, and potential fulfilled in the shape of Grand Slam trophies.
Expectations will not be too high in 2016- the predominantly slow courts favor the older players- but these young prospects have shown they are willing to put in the hard work and make steady progress.
That progress will be exciting to see in 2016, a season which should give us some insight into what direction these player’s careers and rivalries should take.
For while none of them are likely to become the first teen slam finalists since Rafael Nadal, when the current top players start to wind down in five to six years, these players will be hitting their mid twenties and their primes, and could possibly be making up what might go down as the next big four, or even five, or six.
CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at Flickr.
What will become of Nick Kyrgios?
Nick Kyrgios seems to have taken to his being typecast as the ATP’s villain with relish. At Wimbledon, he was accused of tanking against Richard Gasquet and caused a fuss when he climbed up the side of an outside court to watch his friend play doubles.
But that was merely an apetizer for the entree that was to come- the comments he made to Stan Wawrinka in their Canadian Open clash.
The after effects were heard the next day when Kyrgios was booed coming onto court against John Isner and the ATP player’s council issued a statement condemning Kyrgios.
Kyrgios managed to get through the rest of the season without too much fuss, but the tennis media will be ready to make one if he puts a foot wrong in 2016. Let’s hope he puts his feet where they belong- perfectly placed on the court ready to strike one of his formidable winners.
The 20 year old is the first player since Roger Federer to make multiple slam quarters as a teen and there is every chance he will become the next first time slam winner. It would be great for tennis if the Australian’s game and not his lack of it or ill-chosen words were to make the headlines in 2016.
What questions will 2016 answer for you about the tennis world? Let us know in the comments box below and we will try and answer them for you!
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