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BNP Paribas Open Day 11 Match Review Milos Raonic Defeats Rafael Nadal
Photo courtesy of nationalpost.com Milos Raonic saved three match points on his way to defeating Rafael Nadal in the BNP Paribas Open quarter-finals. The Tennis Reviews looks back at the Canadian’s first win over the Spaniard, a win which upset the anticipated big four get together in the Indian Wells semi-finals.
Match point down to Rafael Nadal, at 5-6 in the second set tiebreak, Milos Raonic’s defeat in the quarter-final of the BNP Paribas might have looked set. The Spaniard led him 5-0 in their head to head, including a three set win last year in Miami on another slow hard court surface.
But this match point was on Raonic’s racket- the biggest and highest ranked server in the game was about to deliver that huge weapon of his. Raonic served out wide to the Nadal forehand, came forward on the short ball and whacked the forehand back to the same side. Nadal got his racket on it, but it sailed long.
Raonic faced another match point at 7-8, again on his serve. The Canadian served down the tee and a high bouncing return came his way. Raonic took it on with a smash to the Nadal forehand corner, a smash that cleaned the line.
At 9-10, Raonic once more had a match point against him. This time his first serve failed him and he sent the second serve into the middle of the service box, spinning towards the Nadal backhand. The Spaniard tip-toed over to his forehand and set himself up for a huge top spin forehand right at Raonic to force an unforced error. But it was the Spaniard who made the error, his forehand spinning long.
A couple of points later, Raonic had his fifth set point as Nadal served at 10-11. Raonic got a look at a second serve. The two moved each other round the court, Raonic getting Nadal on the run. The Spaniard hit a ball down the middle of the court which Raonic took on with his forehand, deep into Nadal’s forehand side. It was too penetrating for even Nadal to get back with interest, the Spaniard netted his forehand and the match was leveled at a set all.
The third set went with serve all the way to 5-5. Raonic worked his way into the Nadal serve game and was rewarded with a break point at 30-40, but a huge forehand crosscourt went long. The forehand did not let Raonic down on the next point though. The Canadian went for another cross court forehand off a Nadal slice, got the Spaniard on the run and then whacked the return for a forehand to the Nadal backhand side that Nadal could only slide into and get his racket on and Raonic had another break point.
This time Nadal dictated matters, coming forward on a forehand that had Raonic on the stretch. The Canadian got to it, though, and sent it flying over Nadal’s head and landing in near the baseline. The Spaniard tracked it down but did not have enough time to do anything with it, sending it back past the baseline and the Canadian had the break.
Raonic was serving for his first win in six meetings with Nadal in a match that had lasted close to three hours. He opened the game with an ace, and would earn match point with one, too.
On match point, Raonic hit a serve down the tee, a forehand off the short ball deep to the Nadal backhand, the Canadian forced an error and grabbed his first win over the former champion.
Raonic’s win put an end to a possible ‘Big Four’ reunion in the Indian Wells last four. The four had not made up the last four of a big event since the Australian Open 2012, and the possibility of them doing so again was filling up a lot of headlines. Raonic though made the headlines about him, and will represent his generation of Nishikori, Dimitrov and Tomic, a generation that often looks lost, but which, with Raonic playing like this, may find its way again at the BNP Paribas Open.
Raonic will face Federer next, and on a surface favoring the better serves, and which gives Raonic plenty of time to set up his big ground strokes, the Canadian may spoil another party- a much anticipated final between Djokovic and the Swiss- yet.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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BNP Paribas Open Semi-final Preview Novak Djokovic Vs Andy Murray
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Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will face each other for the 25th time when they meet in the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner
.One of the most prolific ATP rivalries is also one of the most difficult to watch. The two, who were junior rivals, too, have been competing against one another for a decade now in the professional ranks. But while they have both been among the very best of their generation, their matches have not produced the best quality, nor has the rivalry been that competitive, with Djokovic leading the head to head 16-8.
The last time Andy Murray beat Novak Djokovic was Wimbledon 2013. Since then, Murray has lost five consecutive times. In the three best of three matches
, he has not won a set. In the best of fives, he has won a set each time.Djokovic now leads Murray 14-6 on hard courts. In North America, the two are tied at 5-5 with Djokovic leading 1-0 at Indian Wells, a match played all the way back in 2007.
Djokovic and Murray matches are not for the faint hearted whatever the score. The double handed backhands back and forth from the baseline until an error occurs or someone, finally, takes a risk, the speed around the court which sees every risk returned, the huge returns of serve- they have the same three major weapons and their is little variety in their matches as they try to wear each other out from the baseline.
While they may share
the same styles of play, there is one very big difference between them- the mind.Djokovic is mentally tougher than Murray- 138 weeks as ATP No.1 to none, eight slams to two demonstrate that, as does the head to head lead. Murray may be physically stronger at times, as he was in the Wimbledon ’13 and U.S Open ’12 finals, but when they are both in good shape and it is the mind which makes the difference then Djokovic wins.
That was evident in the Australian Open final this year when Murray, playing arguably his best tennis since his Wimbledon win, challenged Djokovic all the way for two sets only to crumble in the final two, winning a mere three more games.
In that match
, like in many of their matches, Djokovic broke away from the pattern of baseline rallies, ambushing Murray with more aggressive play, distracting him with his body language and gestures as much as his game, and breaking his spirit.That match is one Murray will wish to forget. But that will be hard in Indian Wells. The conditions in Indian Wells have one striking similarity to Melbourne- the slow high bouncing courts.
That is bad news for Murray whose wins over Djokovic have mostly come on the faster ATP surfaces where the ball bounces lower and his counter-punching skills can reel off low bouncing winners even Djokovic cannot retrieve.
But the daytime heat and the fast balls will offer some consolation for the Scot. Those conditions will also mean the two will get through their service games more easily with more service winners, saving them both valuable miles on the clock, though there will be more errors than usual when do they get into rallies because of the difficult to control balls.
High error count, grinding from the baseline, lack of variety- it is going to get ugly. It won’t help either that Djokovic has not played for two days and will be lacking rhythm, especially as he will not have gotten any either from his Isner win.
Murray, meanwhile, has not been pushed, and his form since the Australian Open has been poor. At least Djokovic has been beating and facing quality opponents in Isner here and Berdych in Dubai. Meanwhile Murray has been losing to Coric and Simon, who beat him for the first time in 12 matches.
This match will come down to the mental side of things, with both men being fit
and relatively rested after smooth draws. The serve will give Djokovic the edge as both men struggle with their ground game. Djokovic has a better serve than Murray, particularly on the second serve, and he will also tee off on any of Murray’s weak second deliveries which will bounce nice and high the way Djokovic likes it.One of those weak deliveries will come when matters get tight. Djokovic will make Murray only too aware how ready he is for the second serve, and who knows what else the Serbian will get up to to rattle the Scot. Murray will have to believe, and he will have to stay strong, and in matches where Djokovic has been fit and in good form, he has mostly failed to do that.
As ugly as their matches get (not including the 2012 Australian Open semi-final which was their most high quality contest), there is something fascinating, and darkly fun, in the games that take between these two not just on the court but in the mind, too.
So far, Djokovic has shown he is the master at those games, conjuring all sorts of tricks and illusions to get the better of the Scot. The big question is can Murray keep the Serb’s tricks from getting into his head, and can he perform a few magic tricks of his own?
Prediction: Djokovic to win in straight sets
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Open Day 10 Preview Roger Federer Vs Tomas Berdych
CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at Flickr. Day ten of the BNP Paribas Open features one of the ATP’s best match ups, Roger Federer versus Tomas Berdych, a rare contest of two aggressive minded players. The Tennis Review looks forward to the quarter final action in Indian Wells, California, and predicts the winner.
Federer leads the head to head 12-6, but hard courts are where their matches are the most competitive and Federer just leads the hard court head to head 6-5, and 6 of those matches have gone the distance. This will be their first meeting at Indian Wells.
Berdych has had some big wins over Federer in his career. The Czech beat Federer, and comprehensively so, when the Swiss was world no.1 and the reigning Wimbledon champion in the U.S Open 2012 quarter-finals. He also beat him at Wimbledon 2010 in the last eight, the first time Federer had lost before the final since 2002.
Both men are struggling with the conditions in Indian Wells- slow, high bouncing hard courts difficult to hit through, and balls which fly through the air and are difficult to control. Berdych was taken to three sets by Lukas Rosol and just survived, while Federer was heard talking with Seppi at the net after their third round match about how tough it was to play at the event, and has hit a high number of errors off his ground-strokes in his matches.
Nevertheless, both men have adapted and won three matches each. And while both men excel on fast courts, they are also excellent on slower ones, too. And against each other, with neither one being defensive minded, their slow court matches may vary in how points play out, but they are still competitive and a good match up with both men looking to win from inside the court.
The two men will be helped a little by their match being scheduled in the heat of the day. The heat will cause the already quick balls to fly even faster- a bonus for both men’s serves, particularly Federer whose serve was on top form against Sock, and his biggest strength this week.
Berdych’s main weapon, will also benefit, the aspect of his game that troubles Federer the most- his ground game. Berdych is the cleanest hitter of the ball on the ATP tour, and his flat ground-strokes bring him plenty of winners against the Swiss whose defensive skills are not up to the standards of Nadal and Djokovic, players against whom Berdych struggles.
Federer’s defense is a little underrated though, and he will have a bit more time to get to balls, however he will not want to grind out Berdych’s service games. With Nadal possibly waiting in the next round, Federer will not want to tire himself out in the afternoon sun.
Federer will stay committed to his brand of aggressive tennis throughout, race through his service games, and work on creating opportunities to come in on Berdych’s serves. He will certainly do his best to chase down Berdych’s shots, make him hit one more and profit from the high error count that has been common at the event, but he will do his best to avoid such a scenario, committing to all out aggression. If he does decide to stay on the baseline and make Berdych hit one more ball, it will be if he finds himself deep into a Berdych service game within shot of a break-point.
Most likely, Federer will go for broke with even greater ferocity as the sets near their business ends. If Berdych holds up to the challenge, then the match will come down to tiebreaks, and these two have played 12 of them in their 18 matches. Federer has won 7 of them. The two matches that have come down to final set tiebreakers have been split between them and with them both having such huge weapons, if this match goes down to the wire, it could really go either way.
This match is likely to go the distance, too, and if it does, Federer has the edge on serve and the mental edge, too. It is hard to see Berdych breaking the Federer serve, which should hold up well, and easier to see Federer getting a chance on a Berdych serve or forcing an error in a long rally to get a vital mini-break.
Prediction: For all Berdych’s big wins, Federer still leads the head the head by some margin and has been playing the better tennis this week. Federer to win in three tough sets.
Watch highlights of Federer and Berdych’s 2010 three set clash in Toronto below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Open Day 9 Preview Novak Djokovic Vs Bernard Tomic
CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at Flickr. The BNP Paribas Open Day 9 will see world No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic up against the 35th and first time Indian Wells quarter-finalist Bernard Tomic.
Bernard Tomic, at 22, will play his first ATP 1000 quarter-final today after 25 starts. By contrast, his opponent today, Novak Djokovic reached his first quarter-final at an ATP 1000 on his ninth attempt, and won his first ATP 1000 title on his tenth. By the time he had contested 22 of them, he had another 3 titles, a final and 3 semi-final finishes.
T0mic and Djokovic have one thing in common career wise- they were both highly touted juniors. Tomic is arguably the most talented player of his generation with an arsenal of shot to compete with anyone and some of the best hands on tour, while Djokovic’s talent from the baseline earned him back to back wins over the world’s top three in Montreal at the age of 20.
But junior success and talent is where the similarities between the two end. All the talent in the world is redundant without hard work, a fact Djokovic was aware of early, and which he took notice of. The Serbian won his first grand slam at the end of 20, beating Federer on the way.
Tomic has been to the last eight of a slam once in his career, at Wimbledon 2011. In his 12th grand slam event, he was accused of tanking in the second round to Andy Roddick. In Djokovic’s 12th slam, also at the US Open, he was competing against Federer in the final.
It was Djokovic who beat Tomic in his one and only slam quarter-final. The then 19 year old took a set of the eventual champion, his effective serving, which can be quite powerful at times, court craft, slice and touch all coming together in an impressive last eight debut.
Those skills have often been m.i.a since then, but a recent re-dedication to tennis has seen Tomic get close to his his career high ranking of 24 and he is 16-6 on the year, 20-6 counting his run to the last eight in Indian Wells, his sixth quarter-final appearance of the year.
One of those wins came over the in-form David Ferrer who led him 3-0 before losing to the Australian in straight sets in the second round.
The question is can Tomic turn around his 0-3 deficit to Djokovic? The Serbian is having a strong start to the season, winning the Australian Open and finishing runner-up in Dubai, and he put in an impressive performance against his North American hard court nemesis John Isner, beating him in straight sets last night.
Djokovic is keen on the night time conditions, and he will benefit from them when he meets Tomic. The colder air slows the court down even more, giving Djokovic plenty of time to ply his trade from the baseline, and he has the stamina to stay out there all night if need be.
But Tomic has been displaying patience, too, the only way to win on these slow courts unless your serve is one of the game’s best. The Australian was patience itself against an on-fire Kokkinakis, taking his time to construct points and outlasting the teenager in three sets.
Point construction is where Tomic excels, and his variety can disrupt anyone’s rhythm, which will be essential against Djokovic. His slice will also open the court for him to end points early- Tomic is not fit enough to out-grind Djokovic and will need to mix things up with both attack and defence.
His serve, impressive this season, will also be crucial against the game’s best returner. This year Tomic is ranked 7th for break points saved and first serve percentage, and 5th for aces, and the fast balls will help him out in the night time conditions.
Tomic has a lot going for him in his first ATP 1000 quarter-final, but one huge factor against him – Djokovic. The Serbian likes rhythm, but he can also get back whatever ball is sent his way, and if Tomic fails to take time away from him, he is going to see a lot of high bouncing balls coming back at him.
Whether or not he can handle it for three sets, we shall see. Whatever happens, it looks like we are seeing the emergence of a more mature, hard-working Tomic, a sight as good for tennis as the youngster’s very pretty game.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in two close sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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BNP Paribas Open Day 8 Player of the Day Roger Federer
CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at flickr. Day 8 of the BNP Paribas Open featured Roger Federer winning his 50th match at Indian Wells. The Tennis Review awards him the title of Player of the day for another impressive career achievement.
Roger Federer won his 50th match at Indian Wells, beating Jack Sock 6-3, 6-2 on his way to the quarter-finals of the ATP 1000 tournament.
Federer first played at Indian Wells in 2001. Ranked 21 at the time, Federer played Nicholas Kiefer, ranked 43, but let a one set lead slip and lost the match.
A year later, he returned, ranked 14, and played Xavier Malisse. This time he came back from a set down to score his first win in the Californian desert. That year, Federer went out in the round of 16, upset by Tomas Enqvist in straight sets.
The Swiss would not reach his seeded position in the Indian Wells draw until 2004 when, as the top seed, he won the title, beating Tim Henman in the final 6-3, 6-3.
Federer has won four titles overall at the tournament (2005, 2006, 2012), finished runner-up once (2014) and lost in the semi-finals three times.
The Swiss’ 50th win at Indian Wells, against 58th ranked Jack Sock, showcased the weapons he has displayed in his deep runs at the event, most notably his serve and all-court game.
Federer served 8 aces, won 86% of his first serves and an incredible 79% of his second serves. That stat is impressive even for Federer- his 2015 record to date for second serves won is 54%.
Federer broke Sock three times and held 11 break points against a player averaging 119 mph on their first serve and 103 on their second.
The Swiss hit 27 winners to 22 errors. 8 from the forehand, 4 from the backhand, and 13 winners from 15 points played at the net.
The Swiss played his best match of the tournament so far against a player who may have been playing in his first tournament of the year, but had upset one of the tour’s most solid players, 13th seed Roberto Bautista-Agut, in the previous round.
Federer will now try and get his 51st win when he comes up against Tomas Berdych in the quarter-finals.
Watch highlights of Federer’s 50th Indian Wells win below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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BNP Paribas Open Day 8 Preview Novak Djokovic Vs John Isner
- CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at Flickr.
Day seven of the BNP Paribas Indian Wells features world no.1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic up against home hope 18th seeded John Isner. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
John Isner at home, on hard court- the stuff of nightmares for Novak Djokovic. Isner’s first victory over Djokovic came at Indian Wells 2012 when he defeated the Serbian in a final set tiebreaker. Djokovic was world No.1 and had won four of the previous five slams, taking apart Murray, Nadal and Federer on his way, yet the game that left him scratching his head was Isner’s.
A year later in Cincinnati, Isner won 7-5 in the third in the quarter-finals as Djokovic struggled to hold onto his world no.1 ranking.
The high bounce of the Isner kick serve out wide, the sheer pace as it goes down the tee, the body serve you can only jam back and watch the ball go out or come flying past you- there is plenty about the Isner serve to keep even the game’s best returner frazzled.
It is not just the serve though that worries Djokovic. Even if he can get his racket on it, slow hard courts give Isner plenty of time to set up his huge forehand fired and hit through the court.
Only if Djokovic gets the return close to the baseline and can find Isner’s backhand or make him run does he have a chance to get into Isner’s service games.
But even if Djokovic does get into Isner’s service game, keeping him back and running is not a sure answer for Djokovic to the Isner problem. Isner won’t go for much on those points, will rally with Djokovic from the back of the court, and reach a lot of balls with his long arms and legs.
That play can work well for Isner- with rallies in short supply, the rhythm starved Djokovic, and Djokovic feeds off rhythm from the baseline like Isner feeds off his service rhythm, might find himself making errors on balls he does not usually have to think about against the lesser servers on tour.
That’s because he rarely does have to think about rallies against Isner. Isner will race through his service games with aces, service winners and forehands winners off short balls. Rallies will rarely exceed five shots.
Djokovic will get though his service games relatively smoothly, too.The world no.1’s serve is much improved now with more variety and his second serve is a weapon he can call on in tough moments. If his serve does let him down, Isner’s return is his weak spot, but he can get them in, and if he gets to 15-40, he will take a risk or two, and a risky forehand can pay off for the American.
That forehand has not been doing too much for Isner recently, which is good news for Djokovic. Isner’s two wins over Djokovic, the other in Cincinnati 2013, came on the back of successful streaks, but now, ranked 20, Isner is 3-6 on 2015 and has not been past the quarters of an event since he took the title in Atlanta late last July.
Isner did look impressive though in his second round win over Kevin Anderson, dismissing the South African in straights, and if Isner is going to start streaking, North American hard-courts are going to be where it starts.
The home support Isner receives will give him plenty of motivation and encouragement and, in a match Djokovic himself has said will come down to a few points, that support could be crucial at those critical moments.
Few players have handled the role of villian with more humor than Djokovic, though. But that miscasting can get to him, and that could be worth a priceless point for Isner when this match come down to the inevitable tiebreaks.
Isner is a titan of tiebreak where the serve is king. Djokovic will have to play his very best and be at his toughest mentally to take the rare opportunities he might get on the Isner serve when the match comes down to the wire.
Few men, however, perform better than the Serbian when the going gets tough, and few men bring that quality out of him more than Isner.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in three sets.
Watch highlights of Isner’s win over Djokovic at Indian Wells 2012.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Open Day 7 Player of the Day: Tommy Robredo
Photo courtesy of http://www.zimbio.com Day 7 of the BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, featured Tommy Robredo beating Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 to make the fourth round. The Tennis Review awards Robredo the title of Player of the Day.
Tommy Robredo, seeded 17, beat world no.11 Grigor Dimitrov in the Indian Wells third round 15 years after he made his 2000 ATP 1000 debut at Madrid, then played in Stuttgart.
Robredo lost that debut match but that losing start was anything but a sign of things to come- before this year’s Indian Wells, Robredo had a win-loss ATP 1000 record of 127-93. Those numbers include his 2006 Hamburg title and runs to two Cincinnati semi-finals, and the semi-finals of Hamburg and Paris.
It will be the 32 year old’s fifth appearance in the Indian Wells last sixteen after making it to that stage in 2005 and from 2009-2011.
Dimitrov is the highest ranked player Robredo has beaten at the BNP Paribas Open. The Spaniard led him 1-1 before the match and avenged a three set loss in Toronto last season.
The veteran took the first set 6-4 before being brushed aside in the second set 1-6. In the third set, Robredo had the advantage of serving first and stayed with Dimitrov all the way to leading 6-5.
In the 12th game, with Dimitrov leading 15-0, the Bulgarian hit a rally ball to Robredo’s forehand. The 17th seed hit a big forehand down the line to the Dimitrov backhand that got Dimitrov on the stretch and sent back a short return. Robredo struck another huge forehand, this time cross-court, for a winner.
The forehand is Robredo’s best shot, and it made a big impression on Dimitrov in that final game. The Bulgarian went for his second serve on the next point a little too much to avoid getting involved in another rally with the steady and tactically smart Spaniard whose forehand was in form, and hit a double fault.
That double fault meant Dimitrov was 15-30 down. The Bulgarian then double faulted again and Robredo had match point.
The Spaniard hit another strong forehand down the line and then moved forward to hit a winning backhand volley to take the match.
The world no. 19 now faces Milos Raonic for a place in the quarter-finals.
Watch highlights of Robredo’s win over Dimitrov below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Open Day 6 Preview Roger Federer Vs Andreas Seppi
CC courtesy of Marianne Bevis at Flickr. Day 6 of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells features a third round rematch of the round of 32 Australian Open contest in which Andreas Seppi upset the second seed Roger Federer in four sets.
Before that upset, Federer had beaten Seppi ten times and lost only 1 set. Federer was going into the match as the Brisbane champion and world no.2 at a tournament he had won four times and had not lost before the semi-finals at for 11 years.
Seppi scored not only his first win over Federer, but his first ever top ten win that day, making amends for letting slip a two sets to love lead over Novak Djokovic at the 2012 French Open.
Since that win in Melbourne, Seppi has gone 7-3 at ATP tour events including a run to the Zagreb final where he lost to Garcia-Lopez. Berdych and Gasquet are the other two players to beat him, both in three sets. But while Seppi has been testing the top ranked players, he has not beaten anyone in the top 50- the highest ranked player he has beaten is 55th ranked Marcel Granollers.
Federer, meanwhile, is 5-0 since the Australian Open loss and won the title in Dubai, beating Djokovic in the final.
To say Federer will be focused for this rematch is an understatement. The Swiss wants to win Wimbledon and every bad loss before that event undermines his confidence and his status and affects his chances.
Seppi caught Federer off guard that day. The 30 year old’s experience, steady back court play and solid service all came together against a Federer who was out of sorts. Federer might have gotten by had he not faced someone who has been around as long as Seppi.
Five sets is a different game to three sets, though. Seppi had more time to execute his strategy in Melbourne. He will not have that time in Indian Wells and Federer will come out sharp. As he has found in eight of his nine straight sets losses to Federer in best of three, those best of three setters can fly by.
Luckily for Seppi, he meets Federer on one of the tour’s slowest hard courts. Seppi’s game translates well to all surfaces- his three titles come on grass, clay and indoor hard- and the slow courts will allow him plenty of time to set up passing shots for Federer at the net, and Seppi loves a target.
Federer will need to have his back-court game on form as it is unlikely he will be able to win this one entirely from the net as he might in Basel or Dubai. He will also need his serve to get some easy points and spend his energy on working his way into Seppi’s service games.
Federer played well enough in his second round win over Diego Schwartzmann, winning 77% of his total service points and 47% of his total returns. Meanwhile Seppi compiled stats of 70-34.
But neither win tells us anything about the form they might produce, both playing within themselves against opponents their games match up well against.
Until Melbourne, though, the consensus was Federer’s game matched up well with Seppi. The question is was it a one off or can Seppi reproduce the strategy he employed against Federer that day, and the high level of serving, and grab another famous win?
The answer is on Federer’s racket. If he comes out playing his attacking brand of tennis and stays committed and focused, he will get this over with quickly. If he takes his eye of the ball for even a second though, against an opponent who must fancy his chances, he could find himself with a lot longer between Indian Wells and the start of the Clay season than he anticipated.
Prediction: Federer to win in three sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Open Day 5 Review Thanasi Kokkinakis Defeats Juan Monaco
Photo courtesy of http://www.tennis.com.au Thanasi Kokkinakis reached his first career ATP 1000 last sixteen at the BNP Paribas Open Indian Wells by beating Juan Monaco 6-2, 5-7, 7-6 (5). The Tennis Review looks back at a tennis match that had to be won twice but will be replayed over and over.
That Kokkinakis could beat Monaco was not in doubt, but the manner in which he dominated the first set was surprising.
The world No. 124’s forehand was in great shape from the get-go as a forehand winner earned him a break point in the opening game. The Australian then unleashed a barrage of forehands, pinning Monaco behind the baseline and forcing him into error to grab an early break and a 1-0 lead.
Kokkinakis’ forehand continued to serve him well as he struck a winner to save break point at 15-40 in the next game. The Australian fought back to deuce and went on to win the game with an ace.
Leading 2-0, Kokkinakis then broke again, winning break point with another barrage of forehands, his weight of shot overwhelming a lamenting Monaco.
At 4-0, Kokkinakis was now relentless and held another break point, but Monaco fought to deuce and Kokkinakis began to overcook his forehand for the first time as Monaco won a ten minute game to get his name on the scoreboard.
Kokkinakis responded by holding for 5-1 and then earned more break points, his forehand once more on top form. Monaco survived, though, for 2-5, but Kokkinakis wasted no time racing into a 40-0 lead as he served for the match and sealed the set on his first set point as he served out wide and hit a forehand winner on the short return.
The set had flown by in 34 minutes with Kokkinakis winning 100% of his first serves and striking ten winners to ten errors.
The second set.
Monaco started the second set off well, hitting a forehand winner of his own to hold for 1-0. The Argentine managed to stay with Kokkinakis until 2-2 when the Australian held break points once more. Monaco did well to save the first with a backhand down the line winner, and he did well to survive another barrage of forehands and get the ball to the Kokkinakis backhand. That play earned him the short ball, but his forehand into the net undid his good work and Monaco was a set and a break down.
Monaco’s defense had got him back into the match until that point, and it would get him back into it again in the next game. The Argentine held a break point to break back for 3-3 and converted it as Kokkinakis made a forehand error.
Monaco was now level in the second set at 3-3, had the momentum and began to inject more pace into his shots and play more aggressively than usual while the Kokkinakis first serve went a.w.o.l.
Monaco held three break points for 4-3. Kokkinakis found his serve again and saved the first two break points but he could do nothing about the third as Monaco won what may be the shot of the tournament, a tweener lob to lead 4-3.
See Monaco’s shot of the tournament below.
Monaco could not consolidate and went down 5-4 and Kokkinakis served for the match, but the Australian could not do it with Monaco producing his best tennis when down.
Monaco broke Kokkinakis for 5-5, held serve and then break the 18 year old again, the teenager seemingly shell-shocked after watching a match he was dominating with ease turn into a test, his every shot coming back at him, and his best shots breaking down.
Third set.
Kokkinakis was so stunned by being tied at a set all, he took a Medical Time Out, complaining of feeling unwell and having a cold. The trainer could not do anything to help him and Monaco was anything but impressed.
The break did Kokkinakis good, though. He recovered from his second set slip up, and Monaco’s momentum was lost.
At 2-2, Kokkinakis held a break point, but could not convert, hitting a forehand long, a call he challenged and was denied. Kokkinakis earned another break point immediately and won this one, striking a return into Monaco’s body and getting an error.
Kokkinakis held all the way to 5-3 despite being far from the form he had started the match in and Monaco being at his defensive best, a forehand winner on the run cleaning the line to level at 30-30 in an 13 shot rally a sign of Monaco’s resistance and stamina. Kokkinakis would challenge the call but it was in.
That challenge was Kokkinakis’ last, and neither men had any left, both men and the crowd laughing at this state of affairs.
It looked like it would not matter, though, at 5-4 when Kokkinakis, who saved break point serving for the match, held match point at 5-4.
The Australian did not go for anything in the rally, but Monaco did and the Argentine hit a forehand cross court that called in though Kokkinakis and seen it go out, a fact verified by hawk-eye, something that Kokkinakis could fortunately not see.
Now the lack of challenges was anything but a laughing matter. Kokkinakis received no help from the umpire and went on to drop his serve as Monaco hit his ground-strokes with power and depth, moved his rival around to get a short ball and struck a forehand winner mid court for a break point. Kokkinakis did his best to avoid another long rally by hitting a drop shot but he dumped it into the net and found himself at 5-5 in the third set against one of the tour’s most experienced and consistent players when he should have been celebrating his first last sixteen in an ATP 1000.
The final set would be decided on a tiebreaker, a fitting end to such a topsy-turvy match, the announcement of an extra challenge for each player drawing cheers from the crowd.
Monaco handed Kokkinakis an early mini-break as he kept up his aggressive intent, pinning Kokkinakis behind the baseline and stepping into the court, but he could not execute and he hit a forehand cross court wide.
Kokkinakis was now in the lead once more and two big forehands forced a Monaco error and earned him a 2-0 lead. The Australian handed the mini-break back in the next point as Monaco’s back-court consistency outdid him and he hit a backhand into the net.
Kokkinakis got himself back the mini-break immediately as a huge forehand earned an error. Leading 3-2 and serving, the Australian then took to the net, hitting a backhand volley, a backhand overhead volley and then a perfectly executed winning forehand volley to lead 4-2, executing each volley as calmly as if he had just stepped out onto court for some practice and was not in the heat of a nearly three hour battle.
Monaco kept on attacking, carving up the court and moving forward, but an unforced error, a forehand into the net, handed Kokkinakis a 5-2 lead.
Monaco held his serve, a winning volley after a 23 shot rally bring him to 4-5, and the match was on a serving Kokkinakis’ racket. He played it safe on the serve, getting it in short, and then rallied with Monaco, increasing the pace of the rally when he got a forehand, getting the short ball and earning his first match point with a forehand winner.
Monaco saved the first, attacking the Australian’s backhand and then forcing a forehand on the run error. At 6-5, a grimmacing, fragile looking Kokkinakis survived another attack to his backhand as he got the ball back on the stretch. It was a short ball right into the hitting zone of an approaching Monaco, but the Argentine hit the forehand into the net and Kokkinakis was into the last sixteen of an ATP 1000 for the first time.
The 18 year old roared, fell on his back, another huge win toughed out, a match he had had to win twice, a match any tennis fan would happily watch over and over again.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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BNP Paribas Day 5 Preview Thanasi Kokkinakis Vs Juan Monaco
Photo courtesy of cineymuchomas.com Day Five of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells features wild card Thanasi Kokkinakis taking on Marin Cilic’s conqueror Juan Monaco in the third round. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Kokkinakis is playing only his third ATP 1000 event. Impressively, he has qualified two times and received only one wild card, to Indian Wells, after Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal. This, the third round, is the furthest he has gone at an ATP 1000.
Monaco, on the other hand, is competing in his 63rd ATP 1000. In all those events, he has made the third round 19 times, and has gotten past that stage 6 times. Two of those times were at Indian Wells when he made the last sixteen in 2008 and the last eight in 2010.
The slow hard courts suit the Monaco back-court game. Before Indian Wells, his six 2015 wins had all come on clay, five coming in Beunos Aires where he made the final.
The world no. 48 did not win his first hard court match this season until the first round of Indian Wells this week when he beat Gabashvili in three sets. In the next round he won his second hard court match of 2015 knocking out Marin Cilic 6-4, 6-4. Monaco was a little lucky to meet Cilic in his first match back from injury since last November.
Kokkinakis has had some good results on hard courts in 2015. He has only played hard courts this year and, including his Indian Wells wins, has a 6-5 record in ATP main draws, but has also qualified for three events, winning eight matches in that process.
Some of his results have been impressive. He beat Julien Benneteau in the first round of Brisbane, beat 13th seed Ernests Gulbis in five sets in the Australian Open first round and he came back from two sets down to beat Lukas Rosol in the Davis Cup on indoor hard.
His last round was impressive too as he came back from a set down to beat world no. 26 and recent Zagreb champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
Kokkinakis has proven himself to be a big match player this season and this round of 32 match will be the biggest one of his career.
And a very winnable one, too. Monaco’s defensive skills and steady back-court game may be comfortable on the surface, but so is Kokkanakis’ more aggressive baseline game. Kokkinakis is also, at 18, very quick, can play defense well, and standing at 6ft 5 his serve is developing into a weapon.
Kokkinakis returns well, also, and will be able to work his way into the Monaco service games without too much difficulty, applying pressure on the Spaniard.
Meanwhile, the Australian’s own serve and more aggressive game will help him move through his service games faster as he will look to move forward and take on the short-balls, and on the slow hard court courts he will have plenty of time to set up his forehand which has a good range.
The 18 year old has all the skills needed to make his ATP 1000 breakthrough at Indian Wells. He has the right opponent, too. All he has to do is keep calm and execute, and he has shown us a few times this year that he is very capable of doing so.
Prediction: Kokkinakis has more weapons than Monaco, more hard court wins this year, and is full of confidence. Kokkinakis to win in straight sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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