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Tennis fans were treated to two major upsets on day 3 of the US Open: Tsitsipas beaten by Stricker and Ruud by Zhang.

The Ruud upset seemed quite likely. He struggled versus Nava in round 1 and, compared to 2022, he’s been underperforming, with the exception of his RG final showing. Zhang seemed a likely upset artist. He bothered Ruud at RG and he has the type of game that can take Ruud out – powerful, attacking tennis.

Zhang won the first set with some conviction. In the second set, it seemed his nerves would get the better of him as he let break chances slip one after the other. Ruud took that set though he was never the better player. Zhang then won the third but dropped the fourth to love. Zhang left the court at the end of the fourth and returned to take the fifth 6-2.

The Tsitsipas upset was far more shocking. He’d handled the resurgent Raonic with some ease in round 1. Stricker is an explosive and formidable talent, a former Next Gen champ, and he stepped his game up to take Tsitsipas out.

Something about New York unsettles the Greek. He couldn’t serve out the match at 5-3 in the fourth. In the fifth, Stricker seemed determined to get the upset, edging a tight final set.

Tsitsipas has now had pretty rough losses to Coric, Alcaraz and now Stricker in the US Open first week. He’s never done well there despite his hard court skills.

Elsewhere, there were further upsets – Vesely defeated Cerundolo (20) in a gripping five setter, 7-6 in the fifth. Cerundolo served for the match but Vesely would not give in. Meanwhile Bonzi upset Wimbledon quarter finalist Eubanks in four sets. This was an especially surprising win for Bonzi considering Eubanks was playing in front of his home crowd and has been in decent form.

Tommy Paul (14) came back from 0-2 to defeat Safuillin.

Shelton advanced as a sickly Thiem had to withdraw with illness after losing a tightly contested first set.

The defeats of Ruud and Tsitsipas leave the bottom half of the draw in an uncertain place. These two were the most notable potential challenges to Djokovic. However, the potential of either of them actually beating him were low. He very much has both their numbers. For Djokovic, the lesser known players with less history of losing to him in big events are more dangerous. By the time they reach him, they will be match fit and with nothing to lose having already far exceeded their expectations.

Djokovic being upset before the final is still very unlikely to happen, but in a way these upsets have made it more possible.

Tennis is so weird.

van de Zandschulp over Evans

Zhang over Ruud

Marozsan over Mannarino

Hsu over Norrie

Murray over Dimitrov

Murray vs Dimitrov (19)

I’m not really an advocate of watching Murray. All the screaming and angst from someone so accomplished is unsettling. But he does provide VFM. And if he’s playing Dimitrov, the player you’d most like to spend a weekend chilling by the beach, I’m in.

Etcheverry (30) vs Wawrinka

I have a thing for workmanlike players with a touch of power and Etcheverry fills the brief. He’s very steady and at times can really blast the ball. He’s also very down to earth.

This is a classic match of the upstart vs the vet.

Sinner (6) vs Sonego

I’m not entirely convinced by Sinner’s Canada 1000 win. That was a comfortable draw for him.

If he wins this USO, I’ll be well on-board the Sinner train. Sonego is tough. And loud. New York is tough and loud, too, and I think Sonego will be very at home.

Sinner is dependable of late and he won’t be too shaken if things get dicey.

A fascinating contest could await us.

The highlight of the day was Dimitrov narrowly avoiding defeat at the hands of a cramping Molcan.

Dimitrov came from 0-2 down and then match points down in the final set.

A great contest and it clearly meant a lot to the Bulgarian who seemed a little shocked after winning.

Day 2 didn’t quite have the drama of day 1 but still a few seeds went home.

Khachanov lost to Mmoh in straights.

19 year old Fils beat recent Washington finalist Griekspoor in five sets. The youngster,who came back from 1-2 down, collapsed on his back after converting match point.

Winston-salem champ Baez upset Coric in straights.

A total of 9 of 32 seeds were culled in the first round. Many of them were the usual suspects such as Coric and Bublik.

The only real shocker was Rune.

The biggest letdowns were Musetti, Korda and Auger-Alliasime. They were all big hopes for the game but in their early to mid twenties are still not delivering.

If day 2 lacked drama, it had plenty of emotion. John Isner got his offical farewell out on Louis Armstrong after winning his first round in striaghts. Seeing Isner surrounded by family and friends made me realise just how tall he is – and how loved. I liked the guy. I loved his RG 2012 match vs Matthieu. The forehands were incredible that day.

Thiem vs Shelton

I’m not exactly convinced Thiem is back. He’s certainly on the up compared to where he was six months ago.

Shelton made the AO quarters this year. A fiercely popular player competing in front of his home crowd is going to have all the support he could want. And Thiem, the 2020 champion is very beloved in New York. So, this match is going to give fans the feels whoever wins.

Personally, I think Shelton takes it. He’s just been having a better year and is entering his prime.

Ruud (5) vs Zhang

Zhang gave Ruud a mighty headache in their RG match this year.

Ruud fought past qualifier Nava in four sets (Nava’s forehand is my favorite shot this USO – think young del Potro). He’s looking a little vulnerable.

Zhang redeemed himself for his massive choke in last year’s first round when he lost to Van Rijthoven. Again, he watched his two sets to love lead fall away, this time to Wolf, as the American leveled the match at 2-2.

This time, though, Zhang took the fifth set 6-4, the same score he lost it last year.

Zhang could win this one if he wants and if he has the mental toughness.

A great test for both players.

Mannarino (22) vs Marozsan

Marozsan may be the party spoiler in this section of the draw.

He just about survived Gasquet in the first round, winning the first two sets only for the Frenchman to level the match.

An upset of Mannarino is definitely possible for Marozsan. Remember that this guy beat Alcaraz earlier this season.

I wouldn’t bet my house on it or anything. Mannarino is a veteran and has plenty of smarts and Maroszan is still inexperienced at this level.

However, the Hungarian can be quite brutal and brave and he won’t be afraid to send Mannarino to join Gasquet in first class back to France.

Rune stumbled out of the Open on day 1. Or perhaps more precisely, Carbelles Baena threw him out.

The upset was on the cards the moment Rune took to twitter to blast US Open schedulers for putting him out on Court 5. The horror. Rune, with his fabulous US Open history (oh, er…) was absolutely entitled to be on one of the four bigger show courts.

Baena had no time for Rune’s drama. In the latter stages, Rune tried to distract him with an MTO, and it seemed to work. Rune broke Baena and seemed into the match, but Baena won three games on the trot to take the third set.

Other seeds to crash were Musetti and Auger-Alliasime.

Musetti led 2-1 before going down to Droguet, a qualifier ranked 117. What can you say? He’s 21 and a half now, old enough to know better.

Auger-Alliasime, aka FAA, went down to Mackenzie Mcdonald. This wasn’t really a shock. FAA has fallen off the last year and this is his third first round slam exit in a row. Mcdonald is a very good player who likes a big match so this one was always dangerous.

Bublik was also upset by Thiem. This one I did find surprising. Bublik seemed to have his head down more and Thiem doesn’t have the muscle and punch that he used to. Bublik was back to his old ways, hardly bothering at times. You will not find Thiem ever giving up and all he had to do was show up and be professional and win his first slam match since the AO ’21.

Seb Korda also went down. To Fucsovics. That’s a tough first rounder. Korda has been so up and down the past couple of years. This one went to five and could have gone either way. Back luck for the 23 year old.

So, with 5 of the 16 seeds out in the top half, the bottom half of the draw is already a little chaotic.

Of the seeds who did win, the most noteworthy victory belonged to Tsitsipas. He beat Raonic in three very convincing sets. He is now the man most likely to stop Djokovic, who cruised through his night match, before the final.

These matches caught my eye:

Hanfmann vs Sinner (6)

Hanfmann is one of the unseeded players you wanted to avoid.

Sinner won his first 1000 title recently in Montreal. This will be a real test for him.

T Daniel vs G Monfils

Monfils provided arguably the year’s most entertaining match in the RG 1st round. No surprises, there.

Daniel is wily, determined and consistent. He’ll push Monfils to come up with his very best shotmaking.

Baez vs Coric (27)

Baez is coming off a tournament win last week in Winston Salem.

Coric has been around for a while and can play great tennis on hard courts.

Coric hasn’t reached his potential at slam level. He often gets quite tough draws in slams, partly because of his relatively low seeded positions. He’s inconsistent across the season. He could go out in the first round here or go on a career best slam run.

Carballes Baena vs Rune (5)

Carballes Baena is a gritty and capable opponent and Rune is injured and peeved. Who with? The US Open schedulers. The Dane is not happy about being sent to rot out on Court 5. Poor guy.

It doesn’t help that there’s only 2 matches on AA for the day session. Or that Tiafoe, Fritz, Djokovic, Tsitsipas and Ruud are all playing.

A volatile and injured Rune versus a seasoned vet whose probably more at home on the less showy courts anyway – popcorn, please.

Tsitsipas (7) vs Raonic

Tsitsipas is always ripe for an upset early on in a slam and his record at the USO is not stellar.

Raonic is on the verge of retirement and seems like he’s from an altogether different age than the social media obsessed Greek.

Raonic has had some nice results coming in and would love a memorable send off in the North American slam.

Tsitsipas is playing without his father stressing out on the sidelines.

Some good storylines here.

Wolf Vs Zhang

There’s something intriguing me about this match. These are two very strong unseeded players duking it out.

Wolf loves playing in front of a home crowd and the support out on court 13 is going to be wild.

Zhang is a very good player with so much potential. He’s going to be the first breakout Chinese male tennis player at some point or other.

Expect some great rallies and plenty of fist pumping.

Being out of the loop for a while, I’m not really the best person to write a women’s preview but I’m going to have a go. Mind you, me being out the loop means not watching tennis 24/7, posting every day and dreaming about the game. I’ve still been keeping an eye on things so read it anyway! I stopped covering the women’s game several years ago to focus on the men’s, but the women’s game is actually more interesting for me lately.

Some things I do know about the field right now:

1. Iga Swiatek is struggling, suffering SFs losses in Canada and Cincy to opponents she was dominating.
2. Rybakina hasn’t gotten back to her pre RG form. Elena was doing so well up until that virus. She was very off in her Wimbledon QF and had to withdraw in Cincy. She did win 3 matches in a row in Canada and might have won it had it not been for the scheduling only for injury to crop up once more in her next event.
3. Coco Gauff is on the up. Gauf beat Swiatek in Montreal and went on to win the title. Also won Washington.
4. Sabalenka is…still Sabalenka. Buyer beware. She should have won the Wimbledon semi. She had a decent lead in to NYC but lost to Samsonova and Muchova, players she’d be beating if she was feeling good.
5. Vondrousova is still a wild card. She did fairly okay in Canada and Cincy, losing to Gauff and Swiatek and going 5-2, but she lost those matches fairly tamely. I feel like anything could happen with her this USO.
6. Things are very open. One thing I noticed looking at the men’s draw is how much tougher the women’s field is. No one has a cakewalk and anyone could be upset. Sections are crammed with seasoned vets, proven seed slayers and players who’ve gone deep in slams.

Let’s look at the draws:

Swiatek:

1r Peterson

2r Ngounoue/Saville

3r Cocciaretto

4r Kurdermetova (Ostapenko and Cornet lurking)

QF Gauff

SF Rybakina

F Sabalenka

Upset potential: Above average. This is a fairly tough draw from the fourth round on. In fact, the second and third are not cakewalks. Gauff in the quarters is worse than Gauff in the semis. There’s less pressure on the American. If Rybakina is in the semis that means she’s healthy. Oh dear, Swiatek is out of favor with the draw Gods.

Gauff:

1r Qualifier

2r Qualifier/Andreeva

3r Mertens (Collins lurking)

4r Kvitova (Linette lurking, Brady and Wozniacki present)

QF Swiatek

SF Rybakina

F Sabalenka

Upset potential: Gauf will have her hands full from the second round on if Andreeva gets there. Gauff couldn’t escape the spotlight if she tried and if she faces Andreeva-Collins-Kvitova-Swiatek, she’s going to be playing on AA under the lights every night. Gauff has it tough.

Sabalenka

1r Zanevska

2r Blinkova/Burrage

3r Pliskova

4r Kasatkina (Vekic, Badosa, Kenin, Venus Williams lurking!)

QF Jabeur (Krejcikova, Podoroska, Zheng lurking)

SF Pegula (Vondrousova, Keys, Garcia lurking)

F Swiatek

Upset potential: An interesting draw. Kenin would be a tough match. Nothing too dangerous here, though. Arguably has the safest passage of the top seeds.

Jabeur did beat her at Wimbledon. But I don’t see Jabeur getting that far. She seemed pretty broken after her SW19 final loss and I think she might need more time.

So…expect a random upset.

Rybakina

1r Kostyuk

2r Tomljanovic/ Udvardy

3r Cirstea (Kalinskaya lurking)

4r Bencic (Azarenka lurking)

QF Sakkari (Muchova, Stephens lurking)

SF Swiatek

F Sabalenka

Upset potential: Red alert! High chance of a first round upset here. Kostyuk is a dangerous, seasoned opponent. Tomljanovic is incredibly wily. Cirstea, too. Good luck Elena! You’ll need it.

Vondrousouva

1r Qualifier

2r Putintseva/ Trevisan

3r Alexandrova (Tsurenko, Fernandez, Andreescu lurking!!)

4r Garcia

QF Pegula

SF Sabalenka

F Swiatek

Upset potential: Very high. Her section has plenty of banana skins. The typical narrative is the most recent debut slam winner goes home early and there’s plenty of competition to assist Marketa in following this script.